Mitt Romney Wins New Hampshire

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney won a decisive victory in the New Hampshire primary tonight. The numbers as of press time show Romney with about 36% of the vote, about 11% more than his closest rival, Ron Paul. While that is a large margin, and CNN was able to call the primary just after 8 pm eastern time for the former governor when the polls were officially closed, it was not necessarily a decisive one. The Huffington Post splashed as their headline tonight, “5 Years Campaigning, Less Than 40%?” Romney has ostensibly never quit his 2008 presidential bid in New Hampshire, keeping offices open, continuing to build support over the last 4 years, much like what Congressman Paul had done down in Iowa (yet it still couldn’t get him a win). Romney did win, but he was only able to garner roughly 36% of the primary voters. With a lasting campaign as he had had, one might have thought New Hampshire would be a runaway victory for Governor Romney.

In all likelihood, Romney will win the nomination. There really is nobody in the field who can match his campaign when it comes to spending and donations. Through his own resources and the capital of the Pro-Romney Super PACS, he can fend off any surge by the other candidates in the race. Michelle Bachmann, Herman Cain, Rick Perry, they all rose and fell without Romney needing to do much. They had no chance when it came to Iowa, or New Hampshire. They beat themselves. Newt Gingrich, however, was a different story. With less than a month to go before the Iowa caucuses, Gingrich saw a huge shift in support from likely voters. And with the holidays coming up, and the focus shifting off Iowa for a hot-minute, Gingrich looked poised to roll into the final week with a commanding lead. Sensing a shift in momentum, Romney (and his Super PACS) stepped in. They blanketed the airwaves with attack ads on the former House Speaker calling into question his integrity, his record, his marital strife. And it worked. Gingrich’s popularity plummeted and Romney went “all-in” in Iowa hoping to shut down this roulette wheel of Republican flavors-of-the-month. It didn’t quite work. Former Sen. Rick Santorum played well with Iowa voters with his social conservative issues and nearly pulled off an upset. Without a decisive victory, Romney would still have a large field of contenders to bat off in New Hampshire.

It’s a week later, and I don’t see that much has changed. Sure Romney won by more than 10% (with a field of five), but it’s not a knockout punch. Rick Perry, after tonight, should really drop out. But he was never focused on New Hampshire and has instead been looking to South Carolina’s primary on Jan. 21. But his showing was so bad tonight, and his campaign has been running on life-support for weeks, that he should just give up while still ahead. Of course, I probably could say the same thing about Jon Huntsman, but he never even bothered with Iowa. His focus was New Hampshire and it worked – to an extent. Huntsman will likely finish a strong 3^rd in New Hampshire, but with no base whatsoever in South Carolina to speak of it’s difficult to say how he can press on from here. Huntsman really did need a 1^st or 2^nd place tonight to get the momentum he needed in the coming weeks. With only about 15-18% of the vote in New Hampshire, and a significant distance to catch Ron Paul, this does not bode well for his campaign in the coming weeks. But then this all comes back around to Romney and how poor his numbers were for the evening.

Without breaking the 40% margin, Romney has to be wondering what is missing from his campaign to draw in new voters. There must be some consternation on his part that the anti-Romney popularity has not yet finished weaving its way through the field of contenders. About 30% of voters this past weekend were still undecided going to the voting booth and Romney's final tally were fairly consistent with his polling numbers, meaning he still has not done what's needed to sway the undecided to his camp. If given a few more days, or another week, might Huntsman turned more support his way? We can't say for sure now. South Carolina might still have something to say for Jon Huntsman. It may have something to say for all the other candidates as well. Rick Santorum's social issues might play better in SC. Newt Gingrich is from neighboring Georgia. Ron Paul's libertarian base seems to be holding steady between 20-25% of republican voters. If New Hampshire is indicative of South Carolina in its population of undecided voters, we might not be any closer to solidifying a republican nominee for the White House in 11 more days. And the longer this strings along, the worse it will be for Romney.

Huntsman Lands Big Endorsement

Today, Republican presidential candidate Jon Huntsman received a major boost to his campaign just five days before the New Hampshire primary next Tuesday night. The Boston Globe, Massachusetts’ most influential newspaper, endorsed the former Utah Governor as their pick for the Republican nominee for 2012. This is big news for the Huntsman campaign, which has seen anemic support so far throughout the Republican race and it may also come as a surprise to some since Mitt Romney, current frontrunner for the nomination, was once the paper’s state governor. It may come as a surprise to everyone, except Romney himself. The Globe in the 2008 campaign endorsed Sen. John McCain, who eventually won the nomination. With the primary so close, it’s difficult to say if this endorsement is too little, too late for the Huntsman campaign, or if it will provide a flurry of media attention and support in the waning days before the primary, similar to former Sen. Rick Santorum before the Iowa caucus Tuesday night. With the top-tier of candidates so tight and many republicans still undecided, this endorsement could be just what Huntsman needs to finally make a move towards the top.

Republican voters seem, at least before Romney’s narrow Iowa caucus victory earlier this week, reluctant to pick and stay with a candidate. The field has seen Michelle Bachmann (dropped out of the race after finishing last in Iowa), Herman Cain (dropped out), Rick Perry (back in Texas to reassess his campaign after a 5^th place Iowa finish), and Newt Gingrich all at one time taking the top spot in polling. Ron Paul has seen steadily increasing numbers and has the most ardent supporters. Paul feels so strongly about the loyalty of his base he has not yet ruled out running as a Third-Party candidate in the general election. And there’s Huntsman, who has run a steady campaign in New Hampshire (he did not participate in the Iowa caucuses), but has seen very little support come his way. The Globe’s endorsement may help change all that. Romney leads comfortably in New Hampshire, but a strong surge from Huntsman, possibly moving him into 2^nd or 3^rd in the Republican race could upend the field and bring many of these candidates back down to earth. Just look at the end to the Globe piece:

                “But even if Romney emerges as the nominee, it matters how he gets there. Already, the religious Right, represented by Rick Santorum, and Tea Party activists, represented by Ron Paul, have pushed Romney in unwanted directions. In New Hampshire, Republican and independent voters have a chance, through Huntsman, to show [Romney] a sturdier model. Jon Huntsman would be a better president. But if he fails, he could still make Romney a better candidate.”

Romney is, in view of many analysts, a moderate pandering to the far Right in order to secure the nomination, and that should he win the presidency, he’ll be much less conservative than the party wants (probably the reason voters are reluctant to pick him and constantly looking elsewhere for a viable conservative they can support). And as the Globe points out, “Huntsman has been bold” when it comes to his beliefs and values, and contrary to Romney’s denunciation of all-things-Obama, his unsubstantive vision of repeal, repeal, repeal while speaking little of what he would replace it with, Huntsman has consistently laid out his goals for the future.

A link from Huntsman's campaign website provides a detailed overview of some of Huntsman’s signature goals if elected president. But there are a few items that I have been watching with Huntsman for several months now.

Huntsman opposes the notion that ‘corporations are people’ and the controversial decision of the Supreme Court in early 2010 in the Citizens United case. The entire Republican field has endorsed the decision of the court and none find it controversial nor view it as a threat to our democracy. It is, and Huntsman is the only candidate who rightfully believes so. Mitt Romney on the other hand was against the idea of granting “personhood” to corporations until, or course, he needed to raise cash for his campaign and very publically proclaimed to a worried gathering of supporters when questioned on the decision, “Corporations are people, my friend,” then dismissively went on to another topic.

Jon Huntsman refuses to accept that global warming is a natural trend and wants to reduce our carbon footprint, reduce our emissions, and strongly supports turning our economy off foreign oil, as well as fossil fuels all-together, and move the country towards a green economy so that we can compete with the $5 Trillion alternative fuel industry emerging in China, India, and the rest of the world.

And finally, Governor Huntsman has been advocating the break-up of “Too Big to Fail” banks, recognizing their involvement, deceit, negligence, and criminal activity that lead to the housing crash and ultimately the Great Recession. Rightfully, Mr. Huntsman has bemoaned the Obama Administration and Congress for failing to address and change the systemic issues of the financial services industry with the Dodd-Frank Act that was passed into law in 2011. He believes lawmakers failed to pass meaningful reform.

I do not necessarily agree with Mr. Huntsman on everything. I do not like that he is basing his plans for entitlement reform on Paul Ryan’s deficit reduction plan, which essentially ends Social Security as we know it. Huntsman seems willing to expand domestic oil production, which I think could pave the way for approval of the Keystone oil pipeline, the benefits of which are considered by many wildly over exaggerated, and threatens vulnerable environmental areas throughout the country. But what I do not want to happen is come November, I’m casting my vote to re-elect President Obama simply because the guy standing at the other podium is so dangerous to human rights, so neoconservative in their views on tax cuts and military spending, so disastrously unqualified, that I have no choice. If Jon Huntsman wins the GOP nomination, he will also force President Obama to become a better candidate.

Herman Cain Drops Out

Herman Cain announced on Saturday that he will suspend his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination. Cain’s campaign suspension comes after another allegation arose early this week. This time, it was not another sexual harassment allegation, but a woman claiming to have carried on an extra-marital affair with Cain for 13 years, right up to the point of Cain announcing his run for president. The timing for ending the affair is particularly interesting since it would seem that Cain chose to end it knowing full well his life would suddenly be viewed with additional scrutiny. Of course, it’s also worth pointing out that Cain fended off four separate sexual harassment charges and stayed in the race, yet this alleged affair is what ultimately drove him to end his bid. There will be much speculation as to why this latest allegation is the straw that broke Cain’s back.

And I think this is interesting for a couple of reasons. It may be something that slowing slinks into the shadows and we never hear of Herman Cain again (except in the tabloids of course). Now that Cain is out of the race people might stop digging. Maybe there’s nothing left to be dug up. If that is the case, I think Cain will stick to the promise he made to his supporters, that he’s not going anywhere. I think the chances are pretty good that if President Obama wins re-election next year that Herman Cain will run again in 2016. But that’s only if these allegations of sexual harassment turn out to be false, which is doubtful considering the National Restaurant Association (NRA) paid out settlements to the victims, or at the least we’ve seen the last of these allegations; and also this claim of the 13-year affair was nothing more than a conniving, deceitful lie, which also looks unlikely as this woman has records of a phone number with several calls and texts that Cain responded to when reached from that number by the media. Should any of these be true, especially the accusation of the affair then we can discount Cain from entering the 2016 race. If Cain is telling the truth though, that these things are part of a character assassination and hold no truth, then I do not think we’ve seen the last of Herman Cain.

Oh Perry, Perry

Well, Rick Perry proved once again he can't handle the big stage. Perry has made multiple gaffes over the many, many, many Republican presidential debates, yet he still manages a front-runner status. In the debates, he has trouble maintaining focus, especially as the debates wind down. He's often been inarticulate when trying to put forth his policy agenda, and in criticizing his opponents viewpoints and policies as well. And then there was that awful, possibly inebriated, campaign speech he gave in New Hampshire in late October. It's been so bad the Perry camp has said that they will limit the number of presidential debates the Texas Governor will attend. That makes sense considering his abysmal track record thus far. Maybe they should have let the Governor skip Wednesday night's debate in Michigan.

I didn't watch the debate (reason #488 why I sometimes wish I had a TV), but from what I know, Perry was being mostly ignored throughout the night -- the media's usual way of telling a candidate they're taking them less seriously. Even with Perry being close to center (Herman Cain is the current front-runner, and was centered), the moderators were not allowing Perry much in the way of getting his answers out there. Maybe they were trying to limit the Governor's chances of a misstep? But Perry would not be denied. He jumped into the discussion when an opportunity arose for him to trumpet his reduce-the-government mentality. If he gets into office, he would cut three government agencies: Commerce, Education, and "um, uh, oops." He stumped himself on the third. It was cringe-worthy. As has been want for the candidates to do after these missteps, they attempt to laugh it off, or blame others. "I'm glad I had my boots on," Perry quipped to a round of reporters backstage, "because I really stepped in it tonight." Governor Perry might want to look into getting himself a full body suit. I think he's in way over his head.